Die richtige Verhandlungstaktik für das Handelsabkommen TTIP - warum es keinen Grund zur Eile gibt
Stephan Richter, deutscher Gründer und Herausgeber von "The Globalist", warnt die Deutschen vor der Chuzpe der Amerikaner in Verhandlungen. Richter hat über Jahrzehnte in Washington gelebt und ständig mit der US-Regierung zusammengearbeitet.
I am as big a believer in the transatlantic relationship as anyone. At least, I used to be one.
In fact, long before the term "transatlantic" became fashionable on the global stage, from 1984 onward I started and chaired the TransAtlantic Futures Forum, a Washington-based discussion forum that convened well over 150 times.
And yet, it is precisely my more than three decades' worth of living and working experience in the U.S. capital that tells me that Europe should resist the rush-cum-charm-offensive currently laid on by the Obama Administration.
Against ever longer odds, it still wants to get a deal over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) done over the next few months.
Beware Washington rush jobs
As a European, I have the distinct feeling that I have seen this movie before. Remember the disastrous Iraq invasion that supposedly could not wait for another day?
The German and the French governments at the time were very smart and courageous to counsel against the headlong rush into what everybody now recognizes has indeed turned out to be a mega-calamity.
Therefore, a good rule of thumb is this: Whenever the U.S. government is keen to rush the political calendar, be extra careful.
Make-or-break for Atlantic relations? Really?
What about the argument raised by TTIP advocates that the world economy is very brittle - and urgently needs a boost? And that such a boost can be delivered via the TTIP?
That certainly sounds very compelling - until you look at the actual numbers. The presumed benefits resulting from a deal, measured in terms of their contribution to U.S., European or global GDP, are much smaller than often advertised.
Moreover, the impression the public is deliberately left with is that the deal would produce economic growth of the stated GDP range each year upon taking effect.
In reality, the projected growth impact would materialize, like a trickle, only over time, and even then probably not for at least another decade.
This is no real surprise. After more than six decades of ever more intense cooperation, the transatlantic trade and investment relationship is already very deep. Any further progress, by definition, must be quite marginal.
Is it worth the Price?
At the same time, given the feebleness of the global economy (and Europe's, to be sure), every further bit of growth helps. The two questions we must ask, though, are: "Why now?" and "Is it worth the price?"
There is little doubt in my mind or any reasonable person's mind that a properly negotiated transatlantic trade agreement is worth pursuing - if and when the terms are right.
- 1. Teil: TTIP - warum es keinen Grund zur Eile gibt
- 2. Teil: Apple and Google don't care
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